With Lt. Gov. John CHERRY out of the gubernatorial sweepstakes and the other developments involving the race in recent days, it might be a good time to stop and take a quick snapshot of what's going on.

Leaving out those seriously considering a run -- University of Michigan Regent Denise ILITCH, former Genesee County Treasurer Dan KILDEE, those not ruling it out -- U.S. Rep. Bart STUPAK (D-Menominee) and the highly speculative candidates (Joe DUMARS, for example), here's what appears to be the current Democratic field:

- Lansing Mayor Virg BERNERO

- House Speaker Andy DILLON (D-Redford Twp.)

- Rep. Alma Wheeler SMITH (D-Salem Twp.)

- Sen. Hanson CLARKE (D-Detroit)

- Former lawmaker and activist John FREEMAN

Today, MIRS asked a three-member pundit panel a few questions about the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination at this juncture.

Q. If this was the Democratic primary field, who would the likely winner of the August primary be?

"I'd lean toward Bernero at this point because he seems most likely to pick up labor support, which will be critical in a primary," Stephanie McLEAN of GMT Strategies, told MIRS. "His weaknesses are shared by every other candidate: He's not well-known outside of his home and fundraising will be a challenge."

"As long as Cherry was in the race, the narrative was pretty simple. With him gone, there are big unknowns," said Mark GREBNER of Practical Political Consulting. "Will organized labor get behind one candidate (presumably Virgil), or will it split? Will one of them develop enough momentum that money and attention starts being drawn to them? Will Hansen become 'the Detroit candidate'?

"Cherry's leaving has changed handicapping this race from a science to an art," Grebner continued. "If I had to place a bet, I'd put my $2 on 'Virg,' but I never bet on the ponies, so I don't know."

Todd COOK of Mainstreet Strategies said he'd probably have to pencil in Bernero at the top of the heap.

"It's the perfect storm for Bernero," Cook said. "His populist message connects with a wide group of Democratic primary voters, including African-American voters, which is a group that I think is going to have a major part in deciding who the nominee is. He can run against Lansing and channel people's frustration with the current landscape to energize his own campaign.

"Finally, after all the current excitement dies down over this week's developments, real voters are going to refocus on jobs and the economy," Cook continued. "Bernero can run on a record of job creation and growth as Mayor and that's going to be a huge advantage."

Q. Will another candidate get in? If so, would that candidate be considered a major threat to win?

"I do think that another candidate or candidates will get in," McLean said. "Nature abhors a vacuum, electoral politics even more so."

"Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee certainly isn't making sounds of a guy who's sure he's moving to D.C.," Grebner said. "And the race is so fluid, there are a dozen people who see themselves as competitive. I guess we'll have at least one more surprise."

McLean said she could envision someone else getting into the race who could be the eventual winner.

"Yes. If they were a major candidate, i.e. Jim BLANCHARD, U.S. Sen. Debbie STABENOW (D-Lansing), or had the ability to significantly self fund," McLean said.

Grebner agreed.

"Kildee certainly," Grebner said. "Dennis ARCHER, Stabenow/David BONIOR, Mike DUGGAN, if any of them reconsider."

But Cook said he doesn't expect the field to grow in terms of candidates with a serious shot at winning.

"I'm in the minority on this one, but I don't think we'll see another major name jump in the race," Cook said. "What you see is what you get."

Q. Do you believe some of the current candidates will not be on the August ballot?

"Possibly, if a major candidate gets in, but I actually expect the field to get large," McLean said.

"I bet John Freeman continues for a while longer, and then, if Big Mo' doesn't smile on him, he'll pack it in," Grebner said. "You've also left out the inestimable George PERLES and Don WILLIAMSON, who are good bets to be scratched before race day."

Cook said actually qualifying for the primary ballot could be a problem for some of the candidates.

"More than likely a few folks will not end up making it," Cook said. "Candidates need to have about 18,000 good signatures on the Democratic side spread around the state to officially file for Governor. Any campaign that can't either put enough boots on the ground to collect the signatures or write a check to get the bodies to collect signatures won't make it.

"Candidates can embellish their support among different groups, or the reception that they receive from speaking engagements, or run on shoestring budgets, but they can't fudge signatures," Cook concluded.

Q. Does any Republican candidate have a better chance of winning the GOP nomination as a result of Cherry bowing out of the race? If so, which one?

"No," McLean said. "I think the race is still between Attorney General Mike COX and U.S. Rep. Pete HOEKSTRA (R-Holland) at this point."

Grebner agrees.

"The two systems are isolated from one another," Grebner said. "We're not going to see significant crossover, because both sides have interesting fields. We just might see a record August turnout."

Cook made it unanimous.

"In fact it's bad news for all of the GOP candidates," Cook said. "Bouchard can't use Cherry as a foil to boost up his conservative credentials. Cox becomes the de facto face of Lansing in the race. Hoekstra will have to stake out his own economic message and Rick SNYDER has the problem that he's now got to fight with Dillon over voters that until now he was just planning to buy."